Tuesday, January 13, 2004
Hip Hip Hurray - I have survived my fourth earthquake in Mexico City! The last one took place a few minutes ago with the whole office building making a strange wobbly motion for a few seconds that gave me a light nausea. Then it stopped. News of the earthquake have not reached Internet news sites yet. I wonder how strong it was on the Richter scale? Taking into account that our building is anchored on solid rock in Bosques de las Lomas, this earthquake must have been quite powerful to produce such a noticeable effect. Usually the old buildings in the city center fall into rubbles before anything at all is felt in Bosques (I noticed the previous earthquake when the light went off because the entire power plant down in the city was taken down, though not a tremor was felt in Bosques).
This event reminds me of my first major earthquake in Mexico City. It was around 6:00AM and I was sound asleep in my delicious bed located at the 37th floor of the hotel Nikko. I woke up, opening one hesitant eye, when I heard the bathroom door banging repeatedly. Then I registered a noise that I had never heard before: the reinforced concrete structure of the hotel suffering under the tremendous strength of the earthquake - a noise that I will never forget, much more impressive than the motion itself. After trying to think for a couple of seconds, I came to the conclusion that it was too early to run for cover (where?) or to die (why?) - hence I went back to sleep, pulling my pillow above my head, just in case 10 floors worth of concrete were to collapse on me...!
Latest news: according to the Servicio Sismologico Nacional the earthquake reached a 5.5 magnitude on the Richter scale and its epicenter was located just off the coasts from Oaxaca, hundreds of kilometres away from Mexico City.
Posted by Serge @ 03:52 PM MEX [Link]
Saturday, January 10, 2004
Happy New Year! Despite the best efforts from the weather and American Airlines to keep me in Washington D.C., I'm back under the blazing sun of Mexico City (it's cold and rainy today, I feel like in Scotland, minus the sheep). I hadn't been in D.C. since 1997 and something quickly became apparent to me: the Mexican population of the US capital has tremendously increased. From the Chilango waitress in a Chinatown restaurant to the shoppers in Georgetown, I could not spend a day without hearing the sing-song accent from South of the border.
Mexican demography is like a tidal wave flooding the North American continent. According to an INS report, in January 2000 there was no less than an estimated 4.8 million illegal residents from Mexico in the USA. In addition, over 8 million Mexican-born citizen were legally resident in the USA in 2000. Between 2000 and 2002 alone, 219380 immigrants coming from Mexico were admitted in the USA, out of a total of 1063732 people (see INS source). More Mexicans settle in the USA than Chinese and Indians combined!
I see in these statistics as a major migratory flow from Mexico to the USA, fuelled by Mexico's rampant poverty and America's need for low-paid labour in agriculture, services, etc. Is this bad? Certainly not for Mexico, as Mexicans working in the USA send over US$2 billion back to their family every quarter (see source). I suspect that entire villages in Michoacan survive essentially thanks to that foreign income. The question of mass immigration (legal or not) from Mexico is a hot topic in the USA where many believe it poses a threat to American unskilled workers (see this report from the CIS) amongst other things (many more supposed reasons why Mexican immigration is bad for America can be found on the Web site of this advocacy group).
Let's ignore the polemical aspects of this topic: remains the fact that many Mexican families depend on income from the USA to improve their daily life in Mexico. Generally speaking, as The Economist "The World in 2004" puts it "Mexico's growth prospects are uncomfortably dependent on those of the United States". As evidence of this, 87% of Mexico's exports go to the USA (source: The Economist). There is little doubt that Mexico has suffered from the recession in the USA, and will probably endure more pains as the US economy streamlines itself in an increasingly globalized economy.
The Mexican maquiladora (assembly plants) industry is declining as a result of the relocation of US companies to China. According to The Economist "Mexico has lost market share in 47 of the 152 main US import categories, while China has gained market share at Mexico's expense in 35 of those 47".
In conclusion, I believe that Mexico's economic future is tied to its Northern neighbour at multiple levels, from immigration to exports. It is facing serious threats like more restrictive new immigration laws and foreign competition from more dynamic nations like China. There is a hard task of lobbying and economic planning ahead for President Fox to keep Mexico's marriage with the USA a prosperous one.
However, putting all your eggs in the same basket is rarely a good strategy and Mexico should work at reducing its dependency to the US economy's health. This could be achieved through more active commerce with Europe, a more fertile environment for the creation and growth of SME's in Mexico, a strong focus in improving education to compete worldwide at a higher level of skills, etc. I doubt that booming natality, low value-add businesses and unimaginative export strategies will take Mexico anywhere in 2004 and beyond.
